Polling places opened on Saturday for early, in-person voting in two of the most closely watched off-year elections in the United States: the New York City mayoral race and New Jersey’s contest for governor. Both races have drawn national attention, with party leaders keenly observing trends that could shape Democratic strategy ahead of future national elections.
In New York City, voters are choosing among Democrat Zohran Mamdani, Republican Curtis Sliwa, and former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an independent despite stepping down from the state’s top office in 2021 amid multiple sexual harassment allegations. Mayor Eric Adams, the current officeholder, had been on the ballot but dropped out last month and has since endorsed Cuomo. The mayoral contest has been framed as a clash between the progressive wing of the Democratic Party and its more established, centrist elements.
Mamdani, a self-described democratic socialist, has energized younger, liberal voters with bold proposals such as universal free childcare, free public buses, and a rent freeze for roughly one million New Yorkers living in rent-regulated apartments. Supporters see him as a candidate of ideas and reform, bringing new energy to a city grappling with inequality, high housing costs, and the lingering effects of the pandemic.
Cuomo, by contrast, has positioned himself as a candidate of experience and pragmatism. He argues that Mamdani’s plans are financially unrealistic and emphasizes his past governance experience, hoping voters will trust him to manage the city’s complex challenges. He has also criticized Mamdani’s stance on Israel, framing it as controversial and potentially antisemitic, while Mamdani has maintained that his criticism reflects humanitarian concerns about military actions in Gaza. Mamdani has also faced anti-Muslim rhetoric throughout the campaign, underscoring the ongoing challenges of identity politics in the city.
Sliwa, the Republican candidate and founder of the Guardian Angels public safety patrol group, has focused heavily on law-and-order messaging, tapping into concerns about crime and public safety. While he has little chance of winning in a heavily Democratic city, his candidacy reflects the continued presence of Republican voices in local urban politics and the emphasis on security issues among certain voter blocs.
Meanwhile, in New Jersey, the gubernatorial race features Republican state assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli and Democratic U.S. Representative Mikie Sherrill. Both candidates have centered their campaigns on affordability and economic issues, including the high cost of living that has become a dominant concern among residents. The race also reflects broader debates within the Democratic Party, as Sherrill represents a moderate approach designed to appeal to centrist voters across the state, while Ciattarelli emphasizes fiscal responsibility and local governance experience. The winner will succeed Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy, who is term-limited after a single tenure marked by pandemic response and state economic initiatives.
The New York and New Jersey races highlight the increasing importance of early voting. New York introduced early voting in 2019, and it has grown steadily in popularity. In the Democratic primary for mayor this past June, approximately 35% of ballots were cast early, underscoring the shift in how voters engage with elections. New Jersey adopted early voting in 2021, and this year’s turnout will provide insight into whether voters are embracing the practice similarly.
Beyond these two states, early voting is already underway in Virginia, another key battleground. Voters began casting ballots on September 19 for the governor’s race, where former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, faces Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. The election has drawn attention for its potential historic significance: one candidate will become Virginia’s first female governor. Debates in Virginia have also highlighted cultural flashpoints, including the rights of transgender children in sports and school facilities, indicating how local elections increasingly intersect with national social issues. Early voting in Virginia continues through November 1, with election day set for November 4, the same day as New York City and New Jersey’s main polls open.
Analysts suggest that the outcomes in New York and New Jersey could serve as bellwethers for Democratic Party strategy at the national level. The contrast between progressive and centrist approaches in New York City, alongside moderate Democratic positioning in New Jersey, may influence how party leaders approach candidate recruitment, messaging, and voter outreach in upcoming midterms and beyond.
Cost of living, housing affordability, and public safety have dominated discussions across these campaigns. Voters are weighing not only policy positions but also the personal credibility and past records of the candidates. In New York City, Cuomo’s prior tenure as governor remains a focal point, while Mamdani’s historic candidacy as the potential first Muslim mayor adds an additional layer of significance. In New Jersey, Sherrill’s moderate platform seeks to consolidate support among a broad middle, while Ciattarelli aims to capitalize on voter frustration with economic pressures and state-level governance.
As Americans head to the polls this November, the early voting data from these states will provide valuable insight into voter sentiment and engagement. Both elections are shaping up as tests not just of individual candidates, but of broader political trends that could reverberate nationally. For Democrats, the races may reveal which strategies are most effective for winning diverse electorates, while Republicans will gauge their ability to capitalize on economic and cultural concerns.
With early voting in full swing and election day just weeks away, attention across the country will remain firmly fixed on New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia, each offering unique lessons in American electoral politics and the complex interplay of ideology, identity, and policy priorities.