HAMILTON, N.J. — With just days remaining before voters cast ballots in New Jersey and Virginia, Republican candidates are facing a familiar political challenge: former President Donald Trump. Party strategists and campaign operatives acknowledge that Trump’s presence is energizing Democratic voters, while simultaneously restricting GOP hopefuls from distancing themselves in states where he remains deeply unpopular.
Trump’s victory last year gave Democrats an immediate turnout advantage in both states. However, recent decisions — including federal workforce layoffs linked to the administration’s DOGE program and the termination of funding for the Gateway Tunnel project — have handed Democratic candidates ready-made talking points.
In Virginia, thousands of federal employees were affected by reductions-in-force, a significant blow in a state where government employment is a major pillar of the economy. In New Jersey, halting the Gateway Tunnel funding became a flash point in a region already burdened with infrastructure concerns.
Republicans Handcuffed to Trump
For candidates such as Virginia’s Winsome Earle-Sears and New Jersey’s Jack Ciattarelli, the expectation of unwavering loyalty to Trump has created a political bind. In governor’s races — especially when a president from their own party occupies the White House — candidates traditionally seek distance to appeal to moderates and independents.
But in Trump’s GOP, even mild criticism risks the wrath of the White House and the potential alienation of MAGA voters who are difficult to mobilize in off-year cycles. As a result, both Republicans have embraced Trump publicly, despite his losing streak in each state across the last three presidential elections.
At a recent debate, Ciattarelli awarded Trump an “A” grade while defending federal cuts, drawing criticism in a state heavily reliant on commuter infrastructure. Earle-Sears has avoided condemning federal layoffs impacting her own constituents, prompting frustration among independent voters searching for signs of autonomy.
“Authenticity is everything,” former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie noted. “If voters sense you’re not being independent, you’re finished. You can’t run in a blue state while pretending you’re campaigning in Alabama.”
Democrats Sensing Opportunity
Democratic contenders Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey have aggressively capitalized on GOP alignment with Trump, investing heavily in television ads that portray their opponents as unwilling to challenge the administration.
Sherrill publicly questioned how a gubernatorial candidate could ignore New Jersey’s economic concerns simply to avoid “offending” Trump. Spanberger has repeatedly cited layoffs and rising unemployment, stating that leadership requires pushing back when a president’s policies harm local families.
“If you can’t even whisper, ‘Maybe don’t fire tens of thousands of Virginians,’ voters see what that means about readiness to lead,” Spanberger said during a weekend campaign swing.
A Quiet California Disappointment
Perhaps most striking is Trump’s limited involvement in California’s high-stakes ballot measure, which would redraw congressional districts and is expected to cost multiple Republicans their seats. Despite raising millions to renovate the White House ballroom and hosting major donors, Trump has not mobilized funding to oppose the measure — even privately.
Republican lawmakers are baffled.
“We’re going to lose really strong members because this started with Texas redistricting,” one House Republican told POLITICO. “If we lose the majority, suddenly everyone will care again — because we’ll be fighting impeachment.”
Even Elon Musk, who spent heavily on Trump’s reelection effort, has offered little more than sporadic commentary on social media.
Trump Abroad, GOP at Home
Administration insiders say Trump is consumed with foreign policy and international diplomacy at a pace not typical for the first year of a second presidential term. The White House hosts foreign leaders weekly, and the president’s focus on global summits leaves minimal attention for domestic politics.
Meanwhile, Trump has not held a rally since July 3, unusual for a president whose political identity was built on large-scale events.
A Familiar Cycle
Between 2017 and 2020, Democrats crushed Republicans in nearly every swing-state Senate race under Trump’s presidency. Despite that historical blueprint, GOP candidates are again tethered to his brand.
With turnout among suburban and higher-income voters expected to surge, political analysts say the Republican reluctance to establish independence may define Election Day.
For Democrats, the electoral terrain ahead looks favorable — not just because of Trump’s actions, but because of what he’s choosing not to do.