As the government shutdown stretches into its third week, the White House is signaling that congressional Republicans should hold firm, citing internal polling that suggests Democrats are losing public support.
Since the shutdown began on October 1, Democrats have positioned themselves as the party favored by voters. However, internal White House data reviewed by Axios indicates a shift in public sentiment. “Democrats are taking on water. And we have a higher pain tolerance,” a senior administration official said.
In his first term, President Trump reacted strongly to being blamed for a shutdown. Many in Washington expected him to seek a deal with Democrats quickly. But so far, Trump has shown none of the concerns that marked the 35-day shutdown in 2018-2019.
The internal polling reveals that congressional Democrats’ net favorability has dropped six points over the past two weeks, while Republicans’ favorability ticked up by four points. Currently, 33% of voters view congressional Democrats favorably, compared to 54% unfavorably, resulting in a net rating of -21%. Republican ratings remain negative as well, at -8%.
Responsibility for the shutdown remains divided. According to White House polling, 44% of respondents blame President Trump and the GOP-led Congress, while 38% blame Democrats. Two weeks ago, Democrats enjoyed a 13-point advantage in blame; that lead has now narrowed by more than half. This trend aligns with recent YouGov/Economist surveys showing Democrats increasingly blamed as the shutdown continues.
Democrats argue they remain on the right side of public opinion, pressing for the extension of certain Affordable Care Act tax credits in exchange for a “clean” continuing resolution to fund the government.
A senior administration official told Axios, “Trump won’t negotiate with hostage-takers in Congress because it inspires more hostage-taking. Our research shows that the people who know the most about the shutdown know that the Democrats aren’t voting for the clean CR. So time is on our side.”
Meanwhile, the White House has begun implementing a “Reduction in Force” (RIF) policy, threatening to fire more federal workers. These employees, who tend to support Democrats and reside in states with Democratic senators such as Maryland, Hawaii, and Virginia, may not automatically receive backpay if furloughed. “If Senate Democrats want the RIFs to end, they can end the shutdown. It’s that simple,” the official said. “They will lose this.”
As negotiations stall, both parties are bracing for further political fallout, with public opinion increasingly in flux as the shutdown drags on.