The Caribbean is facing its most dangerous hurricane in decades. Hurricane Melissa, now a rare Category 5 system, has exploded in strength over the weekend and is moving slowly toward Jamaica and eastern Cuba with catastrophic potential.
Meteorologists describe Melissa as a “perfect storm” — an intense combination of record-warm ocean water, weak upper-level winds, and a stalled weather pattern that’s allowing the hurricane to feed on tropical heat far longer than usual.
By Monday afternoon, Melissa’s sustained winds had reached 175 mph, with even stronger gusts spinning several hundred feet above the surface — making it the strongest storm on the planet this year.
Jamaica Braces for a Direct Hit
Jamaica’s southern coast is expected to take the brunt of the hurricane early Tuesday morning. Officials have ordered mandatory evacuations across low-lying areas and coastal towns as outer rain bands already pound the island.
Forecasters warn of:
Storm surge up to 13 feet
Rainfall totals reaching 30 to 40 inches in mountainous regions
Sustained winds near 160 mph at landfall
The combination could produce widespread flooding, landslides, and long-term power outages. Kingston, Montego Bay, and Black River — three of the island’s major population centers — are all within the impact zone.
Emergency shelters across the country are now full, with schools and community centers converted into safe spaces for evacuees.
Prime Minister Andrew Holness addressed the nation late Monday, urging citizens to “take no chances” as the storm approaches. “There is no infrastructure in the region built to withstand this category of hurricane,” he said.
Cuba Next in Line
After crossing Jamaica, Melissa is forecast to move into the southern coast of Cuba late Tuesday night or early Wednesday. The storm will likely remain a major hurricane upon landfall, carrying sustained winds between 120 and 140 mph.
Forecasters expect 20 to 30 inches of rain in parts of southeastern Cuba, triggering life-threatening floods and mudslides across hilly terrain.
Authorities in Santiago de Cuba have already evacuated tens of thousands of residents and suspended public transport and flights.
Regional Impacts Beyond the Core
Even areas hundreds of miles from Melissa’s center will feel its wrath.
The Bahamas could see 4 to 8 inches of rain by midweek.
Haiti and the Dominican Republic face renewed flood threats after days of heavy downpours.
Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along the U.S. East Coast starting Wednesday, as Melissa’s massive wind field stirs up the Atlantic.
A Late-Season Monster
October hurricanes in the Caribbean are not unusual, but Category 5 intensity this late in the year is rare. Warm ocean temperatures — nearly 86°F (30°C) — are helping sustain Melissa’s explosive power.
Experts note that this pattern mirrors several historic storms, including 1988’s Gilbert and 2005’s Wilma, both of which devastated parts of the Caribbean in similar late-season conditions.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends November 30, but storms that form in late October often track closer to land, giving coastal communities less time to prepare.
Melissa’s slow pace and massive rain shield could make it one of the costliest Caribbean hurricanes in years, even if it weakens after landfall.
U.S. Officials Urge Caution for Travelers
U.S. embassies across the region have advised American citizens to evacuate now or prepare to shelter in place.
Those remaining are being urged to secure food, clean water, and battery-powered radios, as communication networks may fail once the storm arrives.
Commercial flights out of Jamaica and eastern Cuba are already grounded, and both of Jamaica’s international airports — Norman Manley in Kingston and Sangster in Montego Bay — remain closed due to flooding risk.
What Comes Next
After crossing Cuba, Melissa is expected to move north-northeast into the open Atlantic. A strong cold front over the eastern U.S. will act as a natural barrier, steering the hurricane away from the mainland.
Still, the system’s powerful winds and long-range ocean swells will continue to impact shipping routes and East Coast beaches through the weekend.
For millions across the Caribbean, the next 48 hours will determine whether Melissa becomes a chapter of resilience or tragedy.
As Prime Minister Holness put it, “We can rebuild our homes — but we cannot replace our lives.”