KINGSTON, Jamaica — Hurricane Melissa, now the strongest storm recorded anywhere on the planet this year, is closing in on Jamaica with sustained winds of 175 to 180 mph and a storm surge that forecasters warn will be “unsurvivable” in low-lying areas. The storm’s violent outer bands began whipping the island early Tuesday, delivering punishing gusts, sudden squalls and rough seas along the northern coast. Landfall is expected late Tuesday morning through early afternoon.
The National Hurricane Center says Melissa has maintained Category 5 strength for roughly 24 hours—a rare feat even in the warmest years—and is on track to become the first Category 5 hurricane to strike an Atlantic basin nation since Hurricane Dorian in 2019. Jamaica has never recorded a direct hit from a storm of this magnitude.
Government officials have ordered mandatory evacuations in vulnerable coastal districts, and more than 800 emergency shelters have opened inside reinforced public buildings. Despite that, early counts show fewer residents than expected have relocated. Officials attribute the hesitation to storm fatigue and a belief among some families that they can ride this one out.
A Slow-Moving Monster
Melissa’s slow forward speed—roughly 5 to 7 mph—is adding to concerns. A crawling storm is capable of dumping enormous amounts of rain, overwhelming natural drainage, and creating flooding far from the coast.
“It’s the pace that worries us,” said Michael Taylor, a climate scientist at the University of the West Indies. “Catastrophic rain is projected. Add storm surge and landslides from our mountainous interior, and you have a dangerous combination.”
More than 70% of Jamaica’s population lives near sea level, within a narrow band along the coastline. Officials warn that the southern shoreline may see 9 to 13 feet of storm surge, with waves stacked on top—powerful enough to push cars, tear apart homes and submerge neighborhoods in minutes.
Rare Atmospheric Phenomena
Satellite imagery early Tuesday revealed the storm’s classic “stadium effect”—cloud walls rising upward around the eye like ringed seating in an arena. The formation, usually seen only in the most intense hurricanes, forms as air rockets upward and outward near the eye, widening the upper layers of cloud.
Inside that eyewall is where the most devastating wind will occur.
Deadly Track Before Landfall
Already, at least seven deaths across Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican Republic are being attributed to Melissa as communities scrambled to prepare. Emergency crews in rural areas have struggled to move families and livestock from flood-prone zones as rain runoff funnels downhill “like a water slide,” according to one independent journalist reporting from the island’s mountainous center.
Experts warn that rushing water can become a deadly force: strong enough to lift vehicles, uproot foundation beams and collapse poorly reinforced homes.
A Psychological Toll
Residents say this storm feels different. It has loomed offshore for nearly a week, taunting the coastline with shifting tracks and stalled movement. Schools closed Monday. Power crews have staged equipment inland. Markets saw long lines for bottled water, batteries and portable chargers.
“We’re already tired, even before the worst arrives,” Taylor said. He called the emotional strain a “psychological marathon.”
American Tourists Stranded
Hundreds of travelers, many from the United States, remain stuck after airlines canceled flights. One Arkansas couple celebrating their 10th anniversary reported being moved from their hotel in Montego Bay to a nearby shelter after guests were instructed to assemble emergency bags with important documents.
“It was eerie,” said Maritza Caver-Blake, who described the once-busy resort as “a ghost town” after staff boarded windows, removed chandeliers and cleared furniture.
Concerns for Infrastructure
Jamaica’s climate minister acknowledged extreme risks to the island’s water system, energy grid and telecommunications network. Crews installed backup generators at pumping stations and pressure-tested reinforcement equipment after lessons learned from a damaging storm in 2024. Still, officials warn that rural settlements—many accessible only by narrow hillside roads—may be cut off for days.
A Climate-Charged Disaster
Melissa’s rapid intensification has stunned forecasters. It jumped from a minimal hurricane on Saturday to a violent Category 5 within 24 hours. It strengthened again on Sunday, driven by Caribbean waters measuring roughly 2.5°F above seasonal averages.
Climate researchers note that global warming is super-charging storm intensity, making rapid strengthening events more frequent. Warmer oceans feed hurricanes, and warmer air holds more moisture—translating to heavier rainfall.
Jamaica’s Most Dangerous Window
Forecasters say the island’s capital, Kingston—nestled in a bowl surrounded by steep terrain—could see flash flooding as runoff pours downhill into populated districts. Montego Bay is expected to take the brunt of wind damage, with peak gusts potentially reaching 140 mph.
Worst conditions are expected Tuesday morning through evening. Officials have urged residents to remain in concrete structures, away from windows and loose objects that can become airborne projectiles.
“There is no level of caution that is too much,” warned Brian Trascher, vice president of U.S.-based volunteer group United Cajun Navy. “Wind gusts at this speed are traumatic and life-threatening.”
The Hours Ahead
By late Tuesday, forecasters expect Melissa’s center to cross western Jamaica before making a second landfall in Cuba overnight. Landslides in hilly terrain remain a top concern, especially in informal settlements.
As of the hurricane center’s 8 a.m. advisory, conditions in Kingston and Montego Bay were rapidly deteriorating. Wind gusts over 55 mph have already been recorded.
Residents who haven’t evacuated are urged to shelter immediately.
“Remain sheltered!” the hurricane center warned.
For millions across Jamaica, the dangerous heart of a historic Category 5 storm is just hours away.